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Lots comes down to viral load. When a particle gets to you, there is a small probability that it results in an infection. If you encounter many virus particles, then the probability rises. Fresh particles from another person are the most infectious but given time outside the body they become damaged and are less so.I assume it's an estimate from the speed of genetic change of the virus. If it changes enough, our immune system does not recognize it again. We know that from other viruses like influenca and look for the amount of genetic change between different patients. As far as I know, Sars cov 2 mutetes less than influenca.

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